CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 22/03 - 06Z WED 23/03 2005
ISSUED: 21/03 23:12Z
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

General thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Ireland, UK, France, and the Iberian Peninsula

SYNOPSIS

A cyclonic SW flow is in place over western Europe between an upper ridge over much of Europe and a low pressure area over the Atlantic. A plume of relatively high theta-e stretches from the Iberian peninsula over France to the British Isles.

DISCUSSION

...western France...
Strong upward velocities and mostly non-convective precip are forecast over the theta-e ridge. Some elevated instability could be present, with chance of embedded weak TSTM activity. Behind the theta-e ridge, surface-based low level buoyancy will be good and GFS predicts some convective precip, but downward motion could put a limit on convective development. Some slight TSTM activity could grow, especially in SWrn France if model fields are right. Shear will not be significant so chances for severe weather are very slim.

...NW Iberian peninsula...
Wed 06Z strong shear conditions are forecast over the area, but essentially ahead of the instability.

...SE Spain...
Very slight potential for TSTMS based on instability fields (LI=0), but mountains and the presence of sfc wind convergence at the passage of the theta-e ridge could yield an isolated TSTM.

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